Kentucky Derby Future Wager: Was There Value in Betting on Uncle Mo? - By: Lee Lane-Edgar

The third and final pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager which closed Sunday evening had Uncle Mo continuing as the favorite, closing at odds of 3-1, the same odds at which he closed at the end of pool 2.

In theory, he should have closed at even shorter odds in pool 3 because it is closer to the Kentucky Derby and there is less of a risk the closer we get to the event being wagered on. Pool 2 closed March 13th, and Pool 3 closed three weeks later on April 3rd. Now that those three weeks have elapsed, it really doesn’t matter if you took a chance on Uncle Mo for pool 2 or for pool 3 – in both cases, they will pay the same 3-1. The bettor who played him for pool 2 had to absorb those three weeks of risk that something could have happened to Uncle Mo (injury, foul play, etc.) to derail his Derby plans.

Of course, hindsight is always 20/20, but as it turns out, because the odds on him from pool 2 to pool 3 did not change, those who waited until pool 3 got the better deal. Those that bet on him during pool 1 only got slightly better odds of 7/2.

Will a future bet on Uncle Mo be worth it? That depends on his performance in the Wood Memorial. If he blows the competition away, dominating by double digit lengths and earning a 110 Beyer or better, then surely he will be close to even money on Derby day and 3-1 will look great. On the other hand, if he runs a solid but not spectacular race, running a Beyer in the mid-90’s for example and finishing second, then bettors will probably get similar odds on him for the Kentucky Derby.

The relative value of Uncle Mo in these future wager pools also depends on several upcoming races. If Premier Pegasus continues to dazzle out West in the Santa Anita Derby, and if the Baffert-trained The Factor dominates in the Arkansas Derby, then they will surely have more money coming in on them for the Kentucky Derby, in which case the price on Uncle Mo will have to float up a bit.

In any case, unless he throws in an absolute clunker in the Wood, he is the one to beat, especially since he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over the Churchill Downs surface. No horse that had won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile had ever gone on to take the Kentucky Derby until Street Sense did it in 2007, and like Uncle Mo, he won that race at Churchill Downs.

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