Dollar May Return to the 15-year Low - By: Allan Michael Taylor

Challenges facing the U.S. economy seems to debt crisis than Europe "problem countries" to be more turbulent. 19 foreign media reported that the U.S. Treasury credit default swaps (CDS) has been rising significantly faster than the pace of Japan, Germany and Spain. Study the reasons behind the weak housing market's drag on the recovery of one culprit.

Some analysts have pointed out that the global economy will show "L-type" recovery. Barclays Capital also considers the dollar against the yen and 83 yen exchange rate may return to near 15-year low.

U.S. Treasury CDS gainers

19 foreign media reported, despite the current CDS prices were high in Spain, the United States has the largest debt increase in CDS. According to CMA data providers offer data perspective, the U.S. Treasury CDS prices rose 18 basis points to 45.49, 5 pm to 36.69 basis points, or as high as 19.3%. Spain's national debt rose over the same period was only 8.30% CDS, rose 208.15 from the 192.19 basis points, the German government bonds rose 16% CDS basis points to 43.94, while Japanese government bonds fell the same period in CDS. In general, CDS prices and investor expectations of default is proportional to the underlying securities.

Tokyo currency strategist at Barclays Yuki Sakasai 18 published in a report that "the United States Government did not have any indication that will start actions to address financial imbalances."

U.S. Treasury CDS prices, investors are worried about the U.S. economic outlook, this concern is further extended to concerns about the global economic recovery. German 30-year bond yields hit record low 18, 10-year bond yields have fallen to at least the lowest level in nearly 10 years. In addition, the Japanese 10-year bond yields have also fallen to 7 year low.

Italian joint credit fixed-income strategist Kornelius • Puerpusi that many countries bond yields fell again, but no signs of weaker demand. He believes that bond investors for the "L-type" to prepare for the economic recovery.

17 international rating Moody's said the giant, the United States, Britain, Germany and France the highest Aaa sovereign rating outlook remains stable, but the challenges associated with fiscal adjustment has changed, increasing the possibility of downgrades. Moody's noted that the challenges faced by these countries include: gradually gunned with the financial tools they need to stimulate economic growth, providing low-cost financing, reduce spending and its impact on economic growth, minimize the same time, through Non-irritating measures to boost its economy.

Recovery of the property market into a "chronic illness"

Neither the U.S. nor Europe, the real estate market conditions have become an obstacle to poor recovery of the local economy an important factor. Overseas media reports, in the United States can rely on past mortgage interest rates to boost the real estate market, but this does not work. Reported that 30-year mortgage rates fell to 4.5% for the bottom since the 1950s, but with little effect. The tax credits to encourage housing and other programs to the real estate market only slight, short-term incentives. Other traditional valuation indicators show that house prices are very cheap. In addition, the United States in the second quarter vacancy rate of 2.5% from 1956 to 2006, the vacancy rate did not exceed 2%.

Also reported that the U.S. real estate investment trust (REIT) has also lost their attractiveness, because the minds of investors in the United States, the advantages of such securities as a safe haven has been lost. Data from Bloomberg, REITs and the S & P 500 index dividend yield spreads have narrowed to between the smallest in 1995. The spread in November 2008 high of 9.7 percent, but this month has been cut to 1.3 percentage points, indicating that investors prefer such trust has been depleted.

Housing market weakness is also a European economies big concern. 19 overseas media reports, Sweden, Finland and Norway, prices may fall, fear of a relapse into recession in the local economy.

Some analysts believe that these three countries experienced economic contraction in the last year, the unemployment rate to rise rapidly, housing prices continue to rise, which constitutes what economists call "now must rectify the imbalance." Data show that the second quarter of this year, the Nordic economies, Sweden's largest annual housing prices up 7%; from quarter since the end of 2008, Norway's rates are up 19.6%; Finland in the second quarter rose 10 percent annual rate, a quarter increase is a record of 11.4%. Royal Bank of Scotland's poor economic situation in these countries warned that the bank believes that Swedish interest rates may lead to some borrowers bankruptcy. Finland's borrowing costs by the European Central Bank to develop, therefore making it difficult for officials leading the domestic economy. But the Swedish Ministry of Finance of the National Housing Credit Guarantee Board director Lars Magnusson 16 that the next three to five years, the country will lose one fifth of the value of a house.

U.S. dollar is "wounded"

Barclays Capital Yuki Sakasai said the continued weak U.S. economic data will lead to further increases in U.S. Treasury CDS; expression on the dollar we think the best way is for the U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate fell. Barclays Capital forecast the dollar will depreciate within one month to 84 yen to 15-year low.

19 Asian and European trading hours, the U.S. dollar against Asian currencies except the yen exchange rate outside the full pressure. 18 night, Malaysia's central bank measures to further liberalizing the currency. The news boosted the Malaysian ringgit against the U.S. dollar once in 19 Asian markets rose 0.5% to 3.1273 ringgit, the highest since October 1997 position, which also boost other Asian currencies except the yen outside the collective strength.

However, that day, the German media published an article on the Greek economy is still in deep trouble in the article, the euro against the dollar so the heavy selling pressure, the euro fell to below 1.28 U.S. dollars. Dollar yen exchange rate has the market on the Bank of Japan will consider easing monetary policy further up the rumors.

In addition, U.S. 2 year yields in the 17 new low, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields close to 17-month low. Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco), said managing director Paul McCarley, as long as the lower than expected economic performance in the United States, U.S. Treasury yields will stay low.

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