Daily trader - By: Herbert Berger

A review of how this match turned out has also been added to this blog post.

Game: Novara Calcio vs. Chievo Verona
League: Serie A
Date: Thursday, 2nd February
Time: 19.45 (live on Bet365 Streaming)

There are not that many European League matches tonight, so I have stayed in Italy for Novara v Chievo at the Stadio Comunale Silvio Piola. This match pits Novara, who are bottom and 7 points adrift of safety against Chievo who are in mid-table. This is Novara’s first season in Serie A after having won promotion via the playoffs last year, and they are obviously finding life tough with the big boys having only won 2 games all season.

I’m interested in the goals markets again tonight but will wait until 10 and 20 minutes into the match before placing either bet. Let me explain my reasoning further.

The current price on under 2.5 goals is 1.68 with over 2.5 goals available at 2.40.

Novara’s average total goals per game (GPG) is 3.10 which ranks them as 3rd in Serie A. There have been at least 2 goals in all 10 home games with 6 of these going over 2.5. They have also not kept a clean sheet at home this season. In their 5 games against teams in the bottom half of the table the average GPG is 3.20.

Chievo’s average GPG is 2.50 which ranks them as 11th. Against teams in the bottom half of the table their 5 games have averaged 3.00 GPG. 7 of their 10 games have had 2 goals or more with 6 going over 2.5.

Neither sides attack are ranked high with Novara on 1.20 GPG and Chievo on 0.70 GPG but the home side has the worst defence leaking 1.90 GPG and Chievo let in 1.80 GPG, which puts them 14th.

They have played each other twice before with a 2-2 draw in the league at Chievo in September and prior to that a 3-0 win for Chievo in the Coppa Italia in 2010, which means both previous encounters have gone over 2.5 goals.

My initial interest in this match was the under 2.5 goals market but at 1.68 I was looking to see if there was better value elsewhere and I may have found it.

10 of Novara’s 12 home goals have been scored after the 60th minute with only 1 goal coming in the 1st half, which was in the 39th minute. They have not conceded a goal in the first 10 minutes, although their defence was breached 4 times between 11-20 minutes. The average time of their 1st goal scored is 64 minutes and conceded is 52 minutes.

Chievo have only scored/conceded 1 goal each in the first 15 minutes with 6 of the 9 1st half goals they have conceded coming between 21-40 minutes. 10 of the 13 2nd half total goals in their away games have come after the 70th minute. The average time of their 1st goal scored is 57 minutes and conceded is 37 minutes.

There is a good chance that if you back under 2.5 goals there will be an opportunity to trade out during the 1st half for a profit but I wanted to try something different tonight.

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