China's research output may exceed the U.S. in 2020 - By: cherish

Royal Society on March 28 released a report entitled "Knowledge, networks and countries: in the 21st century global scientific cooperation." The report shows the number of China's scientific papers published rose from sixth to second worldwide. Although many of the top ten are the Western powers, but they are the number of published research papers is in decline, China, Brazil, India and other countries more and more published research papers. By 2020, China's scientific research output is likely to exceed the United States as the world.

The report on all countries a number of research papers published data were analyzed, and the countries in the 1993-2003 and 2004-2008 time period both the number of papers were compared. The results showed that the number of research papers on the United States remains the world's first, but its share fell by 5 percentage points; China's share rose from 4.4% to 10.2%.

China has shot into second place in the world in terms of the number of scientific articles that are published in international magazines and the country's scientists are set to take the top spot from the United States in the next few years, according to a new report.
"China has already overtaken the UK and is the second leading producer of research publications, but some time before 2020 it is expected to surpass the US," said the report from the Royal Society in London.
While the top 10 is still dominated by major Western powers, their share of published research papers is falling, it noted.
Brazil and India are among countries that are quickly making their way up the list.
"The US leads the world in research, producing 20 percent of the world's authorship of research papers, dominating world university league tables, and investing nearly $400 billion per year in public and private research and development," said the report, which was released on Monday.
"The UK, Japan, Germany and France each also command strong positions in the global league tables, producing high quality publications and attracting researchers to their world-class universities and research institutes."
China was in sixth place between 1999 and 2003 (with 4.4 percent of the total) but shot up to the second place with 10.2 percent for the years 2004 to 2008, overtaking several countries, including Japan, which had been in second place.
While the US remained in top spot, it saw its share shrink from 26.4 percent to 21.2 percent.
"China's rise up the rankings has been especially striking," said the report.
"China has heavily increased its investment in R&D (research and development), with spending growing by 20 percent per year since 1999 to reach over $100 billion a year today."
The investment amounted to 1.44 percent of the country's GDP in 2007.
"China is also turning out huge numbers of science and engineering graduates, with 1.5 million leaving its universities in 2006," said the report.
The Royal Society's findings were in a report entitled Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global Scientific Collaboration in the 21st Century.

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