Asia's Real Estate Economy Development Into the Plight of Bubble - By: Allan Michael Taylor

Foreign trade surplus is growing, increasing friction, increasing pressure on the currency appreciation; domestic market prices of assets such as real estate increasingly out of control, macro-control weakness, domestic demand growth and thus has not effectively replaced external demand as the main force of economic growth, this group is the East Asian phenomenon emerging market economies become more spread. According to the report of IMF Forecast: South Korea's economic growth in 2010 rose 6.1%, after the crisis per capita GDP is expected back on the 20 thousand U.S. dollars; At the same time, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has said on September 6, "South Korea's economic growth results have yet to benefit all the people, which I am a heavy heart. "

Once the real estate bubble economy into a predicament, and technological progress is not achieved, then the Asian emerging market economies will be looming economic crisis.

In fact, not only South Korea, and many other Asian emerging market economies are also facing similar problems. Such as Singapore's rapid economic growth this year, the trade surplus increased, the currency appreciation pressures. But the relationship to the national economy and real estate prices are often out of control, resulting in the recent introduction of policies to regulate the proportion of lower mortgage rates trend. Perhaps the time being, it is not yet an export-oriented economy in East Asia's "group" disease, even in times of economic crisis is conducive to gather popular economic recovery, such as South Korea announced a series of boost the property market measures to promote economic recovery as soon as possible.

However, the long run, as the world's new economic growth pole, the East Asian economic group similar economic symptoms, perhaps everyone is concerned about the need to advance and develop countermeasures to prevent an "Asian disease" affecting this area long-term the best opportunity for healthy growth and progress.

From a historical point of view, South Korea, China or Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia, etc., are modeled after Japan's export-oriented economy, then catch up mode. Japan after World War II on the one hand to accept Western aid to rebuild post-war economic recovery; the other hand, the technology to speed up their catch, and strive to technological advancement and product innovation through global markets. It is through the implementation of two policies, Japan was able to rise rapidly after the war, after the United States to become the world's second largest economy.

But the reality is cruel, first of all, the East Asian emerging market economies to external economic and political situation of those years have been significantly different than that of Japan. Europe and the United States the traditional East Asian emerging market countries begun to examine the global economic domination status Jingjiduiqi challenges and emerging economies Zhiding a Henduo responses in the countries in East Asia have not yet Shixian before modernization on the force of its currency appreciate, Yi Jiang Di Jing Zheng export products force; access to international financial markets, monopoly, and through international exchange, futures, securities market share in emerging market economies in East Asia the development of findings. News Obama began clashing with East Asian countries put forward the "export to revive" program. East Asian emerging market economies in developed countries the overall body of strategic thinking can be summed up as "restricted Fa Zhan," Ji Gong Xiang its in a certain range of economic social results, Baokuo cheap goods and capital Huitou Europe and the United States; Tong Shi Sheng Zhi Ye Caiqu currency, Jishu export restrictions and other means to limit its development within the scope of control in order to ensure the development of European and American developed countries, the relative advantages and economic and political appeal.

Second, the East Asian emerging market economies within the technological progress, and endogenous growth in consumption-based sustained economic growth in power far less than the Japanese. Is the so-called "internal cause is the fundamental driving force for the development of things," This is the most critical. In fact, before World War II Japan as early as already in the technical, business and overall national strength side a place in the ranks of developed countries. After World War II has been able to quickly recover and become the second largest after the United States economy, its industrial economic base has played a fundamental role.

South Korea, China and other East Asian emerging market economies of the technology and industrial base is relatively weak in many. The question from germinal is: Once the initial low-end labor-intensive industry to the need to upgrade the bottleneck Qi, sustained economic growth momentum will be limited, the economic structural adjustment, in order to maintain economic momentum of fast growth, emerging East Asia market economies in general have chosen only after Japan entered the developed countries, the rise of real estate economy to be supported.

For the East Asian authoritarian, patriarchal system and other internal economic development model, the real estate economy is able to effectively stimulate domestic demand, but also to the real economy further technological upgrading and restructuring the economy of the grace period, from this point of view, the existence of a policy is reasonable. But at the same economic policies that have huge potential negative impact of rapid growth once the real estate market and emerging market countries, economic growth, currency appreciation combination of asset bubbles, even if those in emerging markets authoritarian, patriarchal system of government management difficult to implement effective control. When the property prices soaring beyond control by Yu Qi fast, then creating about Yin Fa Yi Jilie of social problems Baokuo excessive price bubble Sui Zi Chan Shang Zhang, Fang Dechan Jiageguogao cause of young middle-class anxiety, the capital market Guoduotouji Pin bring the financial systemic risk.

In addition, upgrading the industrial structure of the real estate economy provides buffer may not be able to really play a role. Many cases, struggling for a while but businesses and individuals contributed to inertia, not to the impasse are often unable to stimulate their creative momentum.
Once the real estate bubble economy into a predicament, and technological progress is not achieved, then the Asian emerging market economies will be looming economic crisis. By this time, American and
European countries to shift the sub-prime crisis, emerging market economies to increase the impact of trade intensity, then the emerging market countries are likely to fall into the External and disadvantage. This point will be sustained economic growth of East Asian countries and entered the ranks of developed countries, efforts to create far-reaching negative impact.

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